Thanks for all the upvotes and comments on the previous pieces:submitted by getmrmarket to Forex [link] [comments]
Before you understand the core concepts of pricing in and second order thinking, price reactions to events can seem mystifying at times
We'll add one thought-provoking quote. Keynes (that rare economist who also managed institutional money) offered this analogy. He compared selecting investments to a beauty contest in which newspaper readers would write in with their votes and win a prize if their votes most closely matched the six most popularly selected women across all readers:
It is not a case of choosing those (faces) which, to the best of one’s judgment, are really the prettiest, nor even those which average opinions genuinely thinks the prettiest. We have reached the third degree where we devote our intelligences to anticipating what average opinion expects the average opinion to be.
Trading is no different. You are trying to anticipate how other traders will react to news and how that will move prices. Perhaps you disagree with their reaction. Still, if you can anticipate what it will be you would be sensible to act upon it. Don't forget: meanwhile they are also trying to anticipate what you and everyone else will do.
Preparing for quantitative and qualitative releasesThe majority of releases are quantitative. All that means is there’s some number. Like unemployment figures or GDP.
Historic results provide interesting context. We are looking below the Australian unemployment rate which is released monthly. If you plot it out a few years back you can spot a clear trend, which got massively reversed. Knowing this trend gives you additional information when the figure is released. In the same way prices can trend so do economic data.
A great resource that's totally free to use
This makes sense: if for example things are getting steadily better in the economy you’d expect to see unemployment steadily going down.
Knowing the trend and how much noise there is in the data gives you an informational edge over lazy traders.
For example, when we see the spike above 6% on the above you’d instantly know it was crazy and a huge trading opportunity since a) the fluctuations month on month are normally tiny and b) it is a huge reversal of the long-term trend.
Would all the other AUDUSD traders know and react proportionately? If not and yet they still trade, their laziness may be an opportunity for more informed traders to make some money.
Tradingeconomics.com offers really high quality analysis. You can see all the major indicators for each country. Clicking them brings up their history as well as an explanation of what they show.
For example, here’s German Consumer Confidence.
There are also qualitative events. Normally these are speeches by Central Bankers.
There are whole blogs dedicated to closely reading such texts and looking for subtle changes in direction or opinion on the economy. Stuff like how often does the phrase "in a good place" come up when the Chair of the Fed speaks. It is pretty dry stuff. Yet these are leading indicators of how each member may vote to set interest rates. Ed Yardeni is the go-to guy on central banks.
Data surprise indexThe other thing you might look at is something investment banks produce for their customers. A data surprise index. I am not sure if these are available in retail land - there's no reason they shouldn't be but the economic calendars online are very basic.
You’ll remember we talked about data not being good or bad of itself but good or bad relative to what was expected. These indices measure this difference.
If results are consistently better than analysts expect then you’ll see a positive number. If they are consistently worse than analysts expect a negative number. You can see they tend to swing from positive to negative.
Mean reversion at its best! Data surprise indices measure how much better or worse data came in vs forecast
There are many theories for this but in general people consider that analysts herd around the consensus. They are scared to be outliers and look ‘wrong’ or ‘stupid’ so they instead place estimates close to the pack of their peers.
When economic conditions change they may therefore be slow to update. When they are wrong consistently - say too bearish - they eventually flip the other way and become too bullish.
These charts can be interesting to give you an idea of how the recent data releases have been versus market expectations. You may try to spot the turning points in macroeconomic data that drive long term currency prices and trends.
Using recent events to predict future reactionsThe market reaction function is the most important thing on an economic calendar in many ways. It means: what will happen to the price if the data is better or worse than the market expects?
That seems easy to answer but it is not.
Consider the example of consumer confidence we had earlier.
One clue is to look at what happened to the price of risk assets at the last event.
For example, let’s say we looked at unemployment and it came in a lot worse than forecast last month. What happened to the S&P back then?
2% drop last time on a 'worse than expected' number ... so it it is 'better than expected' best guess is we rally 2% higher
So this tells us that - at least for our most recent event - the S&P moved 2% lower on a far worse than expected number. This gives us some guidance as to what it might do next time and the direction. Bad number = lower S&P. For a huge surprise 2% is the size of move we’d expect.
Again - this is a real limitation of online calendars. They should show next to the historic results (expected/actual) the reaction of various instruments.
Buy the rumour, sell the factA final example of an unpredictable reaction relates to the old rule of ‘Buy the rumour, sell the fact.’ This captures the tendency for markets to anticipate events and then reverse when they occur.
Buy the rumour, sell the fact
In short: people take profit and close their positions when what they expected to happen is confirmed.
So we have to decide which driver is most important to the market at any point in time. You obviously cannot ask every participant. The best way to do it is to look at what happened recently. Look at the price action during recent releases and you will get a feel for how much the market moves and in which direction.
Trimming or taking off positionsOne thing to note is that events sometimes give smart participants information about positioning. This is because many traders take off or reduce positions ahead of big news events for risk management purposes.
Imagine we see GBPUSD rises in the hour before GDP release. That probably indicates the market is short and has taken off / flattened its positions.
The price action before an event can tell you about speculative positioning
If GDP is merely in line with expectations those same people are likely to add back their positions. They avoided a potential banana skin. This is why sometimes the market moves on an event that seemingly was bang on consensus.
But you have learned something. The speculative market is short and may prove vulnerable to a squeeze.
Two kinds of reversalsFairly often you’ll see the market move in one direction on a release then turn around and go the other way.
These are known as reversals. Traders will often ‘fade’ a move, meaning bet against it and expect it to reverse.
Logical reversalsSometimes this happens when the data looks good at first glance but the details don’t support it.
For example, say the headline is very bullish on German manufacturing numbers but then a minute later it becomes clear the company who releases the data has changed methodology or believes the number is driven by a one-off event. Or maybe the headline number is positive but buried in the detail there is a very negative revision to previous numbers.
Fading the initial spike is one way to trade news. Try looking at what the price action is one minute after the event and thirty minutes afterwards on historic releases.
Some reversals don't make sense
Sometimes a reversal happens for seemingly no fundamental reason. Say you get clearly positive news that is better than anyone expects. There are no caveats to the positive number. Yet the price briefly spikes up and then falls hard. What on earth?
This is a pure supply and demand thing. Even on bullish news the market cannot sustain a rally. The market is telling you it wants to sell this asset. Try not to get in its way.
Some key releasesAs we have already discussed, different releases are important at different times. However, we’ll look at some consistently important ones in this final section.
Interest rates decisionsThese can sometimes be unscheduled. However, normally the decisions are announced monthly. The exact process varies for each central bank. Typically there’s a headline decision e.g. maintain 0.75% rate.
You may also see “minutes” of the meeting in which the decision was reached and a vote tally e.g. 7 for maintain, 2 for lower rates. These are always top-tier data releases and have capacity to move the currency a lot.
A hawkish central bank (higher rates) will tend to move a currency higher whilst a dovish central bank (lower rates) will tend to move a currency lower.
A central banker speaking is always a big event
Non farm payrollsThese are released once per month. This is another top-tier release that will move all USD pairs as well as equities.
There are three numbers:
In general a positive response should move the USD higher but check recent price action.
Other countries each have their own unemployment data releases but this is the single most important release.
SurveysThere are various types of surveys: consumer confidence; house price expectations; purchasing managers index etc.
Each one basically asks a group of people if they expect to make more purchases or activity in their area of expertise to rise. There are so many we won’t go into each one here.
A really useful tool is the tradingeconomics.com economic indicators for each country. You can see all the major indicators and an explanation of each plus the historic results.
GDPGross Domestic Product is another big release. It is a measure of how much a country’s economy is growing.
In general the market focuses more on ‘advance’ GDP forecasts more than ‘final’ numbers, which are often released at the same time.
This is because the final figures are accurate but by the time they come around the market has already seen all the inputs. The advance figure tends to be less accurate but incorporates new information that the market may not have known before the release.
In general a strong GDP number is good for the domestic currency.
InflationCountries tend to release measures of inflation (increase in prices) each month. These releases are important mainly because they may influence the future decisions of the central bank, when setting the interest rate.
See the FX fundamentals section for more details.
Industrial dataThings like factory orders or or inventory levels. These can provide a leading indicator of the strength of the economy.
These numbers can be extremely volatile. This is because a one-off large order can drive the numbers well outside usual levels.
Pay careful attention to previous releases so you have a sense of how noisy each release is and what kind of moves might be expected.
CommentsOften there is really good stuff in the comments/replies. Check out 'squitstoomuch' for some excellent observations on why some news sources are noisy but early (think: Twitter, ZeroHedge). The Softbank story is a good recent example: was in ZeroHedge a day before the FT but the market moved on the FT. Also an interesting comment on mistakes, which definitely happen on breaking news, and can cause massive reversals.
Hello fellow Redditors!submitted by dragonsupremacy to EcoGlobalSurvival [link] [comments]
We're (as of the moment of writing) in the middle of our first whitelist-only curated map, dubbed "A Tale of Two Towns", where we have two distinct towns with a vastly different set of government ideology and economic systems in place! Thanks to districts and titles, we have the ability to simulate locality to laws, in effect paving the way for groups of people to join us who want to give us a try, while having full town autonomy! Of course, if you're by yourself and you want to give a well-organized world a go, both our existing towns welcome you with open arms :)
As one of the few servers to do so successfully, we have two sets of a dual currency setup going. As of this map, that includes foreign exchange ('forex') where people can get by solely by trading in the various currencies of the world if they so choose. Be sure to talk to SatsukiShizuka if you have questions about that - she's been the bank for several rounds and the designer of one of our economical systems.
On the other hand, if you're a builder, we have several custom mods, including more block types! We run a 60 day meteor cycle (mostly coinciding with SLG update cycles) so plenty of time to get things ready! Additionally, we have our own blog: https://www.praefator.nl/ where you can read up on my latest musings, as well as reading about server history, our roadmap, and our mods as well as the proposed government structure when multiple concurrent governments are a thing (come Beta 10.0).
With all that said, here is the nitty-gritty info to get you started:
Server Name: MaiestasHaven | A Tale of Two Towns Server Location: The Netherlands Brief Description: Greetings! We're well underway with our first whitelist-only map, with plenty of room to expand!
We have two fully functional economies ready for you to sink your teeth in! We feature two separate economic systems, each with dual currencies, a well-organized world, foreign exchange, plans for a fully Renaissance-themed capital, an Asian secondary town as well as Megaproject 3.0, of which you can see a sample in this month's screenshot contest winning entry!
Server Admins: Praefator (Owner) & Inistaras Server Staff: Ferchibald, SatsukiShizuka, Sans Tark, squishy-panda, NNMike, Acularius
Password protected?: Yes, whitelist-only IP & Port: eco.praefator.nl:2053 Discord: https://discord.gg/qgf6yt9 World Size: 4 km2 World Difficulty: Beyond High World Objective: Let's connect Durmgrist and Mingyang!
The latest megabuild, currently being planned in SP prior to its enactment on the production server
Heyo! Continuing with our six-part catch up series to get up to date on the May and June news from Parachute and partners, here’s Part II of VI (22 May - 28 May'20):submitted by abhijoysarkar to ParachuteToken [link] [comments]
If you're in crypto, there's often the random pump/moon/wenBinance talk that props up from time to time in groups. Especially, when someone new joins a project and is unfamiliar with the community culture. At Parachute, we have always made it a point to have more meaningful discussions than price. Cap shared some of his thoughts on this as well. For the #culturalweekend prompt this week, Jason got Parachuters to share about “something weird your family does that is a tradition for them but not a traditional tradition”. Peace Love’s Big Trivia in TTR was quite fun as always. The beta testing group for ParJar swaps was set up this week. Also, Chris organised something amazing this week which will possibly remain a secret amongst Parachute admins (and Doc Vic 😊 ). But if word of it ever goes out, you’ll realise why Parachute is the most wholesome project in all of crypto. Chris also gave out some cool $PAR to folks in the Parachute channel to talk about "something that you didn't spend much money on that had a big impact on your quality of life". This week's Two-for-Tuesday featured music from "female artists, including bands with at least one female member". Click here for the playlist. Thanks Sebastian!
Some good cheer from Alexis all the way from Germany
aXpire’s May recap video covers product updates from Bilr, PayBX etc. To track this week’s 20k $AXPR burn, click here. The team also shared success strategies for law firms. 2gether co-founder Salvador Casquero wrote about best security practices in finance. A new update was pushed to Wednesday Coin’s dApp, WednesdayClub. In this week’s XIO discussions, Citizens talked about ideal time allocation strategies for research and execution. Top Citizens on the Leaderboard stand a chance to win some cool merch. Also, watch out for pesky scams. Voyager announced a partnership with Sterling Trading Tech to launch a crypto trading widget. Proactive Investors covered Voyager in its latest piece chronicling their growing user base. As mentioned in a previous update, CEO Stephen Ehrlich’s crypto investment webinar happened this week. Switch crew did a community AMA just before the $GHOST airdrop snapshot. The team expanded with new dev hires. In preparation for the $GHOST airdrop, ProBit completed its $VSF:$ESH swap and Stex announced support for $ESH/$GHOST airdrop. $ESH was listed on HitBTC and Changelly. Folks who guessed these exchanges correctly won some tokens as well. Founder Josh Case sat down with Mr. Backwards for an interview. Among several updates to the Ghost website, a staking calculator was added. Click here to read the latest technical update from Fantom. $FTM was in the running to be added as a collateral for DAI. Congratulations to Uptrennd for becoming the highest ranked blockchain-based social media platform as per Alexa. They started a SmartLink campaign with 2key Network. The first Uptrennd halvening went live this week. The team is reachable on Discord from now as well. District0x’s latest District Weekly and Dev Updates can be read here and here respectively. Hydro team shared their thoughts on how virtual cards for independent contractors (otherwise referred to as 1099 employees) could improve reimbursement practices. Entries for their Decentralization Ambassador program were opened this week.
These look great, XIO team
This is what is planned for the GHOST ecosystem currently
SelfKey compiled a master list of crypto lending platforms. The Loans Marketplace will feature many of these. Full transcript of the May 12th AMA was released. SelfKey advisor Edmund Lowell spoke at the BlockConf DIGITAL conference this week. Mongolian exchange AIS-X joined the Exchange Marketplace. Pynk’s crowdfunding campaign on Seedrs went live this week. Check out their campaign video here. Amazing production! Plus, this cool feature in City A.M. was the perfect way to close off the week. Wibson hosted a meetup (online of course!) for its Spanish speaking community this week. The crew also introduced the app at an Ethereum event in Buenos Aires. Harmony burned all mainnet tokens mined before Open Staking going public. The latest staking stats and validator data can be seen here and here respectively. That’s right, 3B+ $ONE is already staked. Woohoo! With its latest CoinDCX listing, $ONE got its first INR trading pair. Saweet! The major improvement proposals that were discussed with the community this week were making Open Staking more decentralized and creating a more liquid staking market. This led to the first release after Open Staking. The winners of the effective-median-stake contest were announced. Hope you got a chance to take part in the Flash Quiz. Do you know about all the projects that have been built in the Harmony ecosystem? Here’s a rundown. The team hosted an AMA as well. BitMax changed some of its rules for $ONE staking. Check out COTI’s latest network growth stats here. And super congratulations on winning the Gate.io listing vote! $COTI was also added to Binance’s Locked Savings staking program. Broking platform Troy Trade partnered with COTI to improve its scalability. DoYourTip’s $DYT now has 2500+ HODLers. Neat! Mycro was invited to join BitForex’s app platform CAPP Town. GET Protocol’s GUTS Tickets was covered in Cryptogeeks’ latest blogpost on blockchain-based ticketing.
And with that, it’s a wrap for this week in Parachute and partners! See you again with another update. Cheerio!
"It was the first of a new kind of supernote ever found in the world," Lee Ho-Joong, head of KEB Hana Bank's anti-counterfeit centre told Agence France-Presse.Reporting the same news, The Telegraph published an article on Dec 11, 2017:
"It seems that whoever printed these supernotes has the facilities and high level of technology matching that of a government", said Lee Ho-jung, a bank spokesman from KEB Hana Bank in South Korea. "They are made with special ink that changes colour depending on the angle, patterned paper and Intaglio printing that gives texture to the surface of a note".ಠ_ಠ
submitted by ronykhanfx to TopAsiaFX [link] [comments]
TopAsiaFX - 𝗧𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗩𝗦 𝗦𝘁𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘀
#forex #trading #strategy #fxtips #onlinetrade
Do you ever know stress enhancements when we realize we lack control over a condition?
Usually, I, you and we cannot control the markets, and we accept risk on each trade—the result of which is always insecure. The changing nature of the markets also adds stress.
Dear Airdropbob Comunitysubmitted by AirdropBob to AirdropBob [link] [comments]
Welcome back to another weekend edition of our airdrop report.
Again we present to you the best airdrops of the week, so you don't have to watch out every day for the best and most rewarding airdrops of the industry!We hope you enjoy the read and find the projects as interesting as we do!!
This week started out with the PRO token airdrop. The PRO token, based on the ERC20 standard, is the inherent currency of the Prometheus platform. Their main goal is to bring solutions to businesses which want to implement cutting edge blockchain technology into their processes. They want to tackle supply chain management issues, solutions for media content delivery and more. And the PRO token gives the holder the possibility to access all the features of the platform.
Get more information and the Reflink here: https://www.airdropbob.com/prometheus/airdrop-prometheusProjects website: https://prometheus.business
Then there was BELA by Belacam. Belacam is according to their website the "Instagram of Cryptocurrency". And their native BELA token is already listed on CMC. Their special offer for every crypto interested social media user is rewarding the community not with likes, but instead with BELA tokens. These are than transferable to your own wallet and can be traded or you can support other content creators with your earned tokens.
Get more information and the Reflink here: https://www.airdropbob.com/belacam/airdrop-belacamProjects website: https://www.belacam.com
Later in the week we brought to you the ETH airdrop by Asia Trading Battle. They hold a big trading competiton and as entry incentive you will be awarded in ETH. There are two main contest, one for forex trading and the other one for crypto. The registration is still open and the big prize is 1 million $. And to top it all of the winner will be presented with a spacial winners belt by Mr. Mayweather himself.
Get more information and the Reflink here: https://www.airdropbob.com/asia-trading-battle/airdrop-asia-trading-battleProjects website: https://atb2019.com
On Friday we presented you the FUNTO token airdrop by FunnyToken. They created the ERC20 based FUNTO token to create a bridge between their games, where you can earn tokens while you play, with their over all platform as well as with third party providers. This way FunnyToken wants to grow their own business as well as the one of their partners. And at the same time of course give the players the easyest and safest way to trade, or transfer in game collectibles and items.
Get more information and the Reflink here: https://www.airdropbob.com/funnytoken/airdrop-funnytoken-round-2Projects website: https://www.funnytoken.org
On Saturday we brought to you the MNS token airdrop by Monnos. The ERC20 based MNS token is the native currency of the Brazilian based Monnos trading platform. At the moment they offer a proprietary wallet app for a range of different tokens as well as a crypto exchange. And for the future they plan to bring to life a special service that enables users to sync their own trading strategy's with the ones of other users. And for all this you will need their MNS token, so you can enjoy all the features of the platform.
Get more information and the Reflink here: https://www.airdropbob.com/monnos/airdrop-monnosProjects website: https://monnos.com
And if you want to know more about everything Crypto/Airdrop related and how to participate, go visit: https://www.airdropbob.com
Like us on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/AirdropBob.io
Join us on Telegram: https://telegram.me/AirdropBobChannel
Follow us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/airdropbob
Or subscribe on Steemit: https://steemit.com/@airdropbob
#airdropbob #airdrops #crypto #cryptoairdrops
LONDON - A London-based former Citigroup trader is suing the U.S. bank for more than $112 million, alleging it made materially false and malicious statements to U.S. prosecutors that led to his trial in New York on foreign exchange-rigging charges.
Rohan Ramchandani, the former European head of Citigroup's forex spot market trading desk, alleges in a lawsuit filed on Wednesday that Citigroup made false and "Gravely derogatory" assertions against him to government investigators and the media after firing him in 2014 without cause.
A spokeswoman for Citigroup in London said the bank rejected the allegations and would fight the case.
"Mr. Ramchandani's claims of malicious prosecution are without merit and we will contest them vigorously," she said.
He also alleges his manager at Citigroup, an experienced forex spot market trader tasked with reviewing and evaluating Ramchandani's communications, had volunteered that Ramchandani had not engaged in "Collusion or price fixing" and there was "Nothing criminal" in his intent or actions.
Citigroup only pleaded guilty in May 2015 to conspiring to manipulate currencies in order to pin the blame on Ramchandani and to limit the regulatory consequences for their senior managers and officers, the former trader alleged.
Your money, your decision that's not for negotiating, isn't it? www.topasiafx.com, we're just helping you to take a proper decision that makes you a profitable guy, how?submitted by ronykhanfx to TopAsiaFX [link] [comments]
- Appropriate overviews from the trusted and regulated #ForexBrokers. - Forex Bonus, contest and other promotions. - Forex exclusive guides. - and daily Forex forecast.
We think about you as a fresh starter, not a vendee! Wish you a happy start with us.
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|Next Block Conference||June 25, 2019|
|3rd Quarter Burn Program||June 25, 2019|
|Bitcoin(BTC)||Bitcoin 2019||June 25, 2019|
|TRON(TRX)||Justin Sun Livestream||June 25, 2019|
|Waves(WAVES)||Node Release||June 25, 2019|
|COSS(COSS)||COSS/LALA Merger||June 25, 2019|
|Theta Token(THETA)||Design Contest Deadline||June 25, 2019|
|Theta Token(THETA)||Design Contest Deadline||June 25, 2019|
|Nexty(NTY)||Seamless Asia 2019||June 25, 2019|
|Hackathon Deadline||June 26, 2019|
|AMA with CEO||June 26, 2019|
|Bitfinex Platform Upgrade||June 26, 2019|
|Bitcoin Cash(BCH)||MWC19 Shanghai||June 26, 2019|
|E-Dinar Coin(EDR)||Singapore Defense Technology Summit||June 26, 2019|
|BitBar(BTB)||E-Barter Trading Platform||June 26, 2019|
|Binance DEX Listing||June 25, 2019|
|Dobi Listing||June 26, 2019|
|CoinTiger Listing||June 26, 2019|
|BitForex Listing||June 26, 2019|
|Cardano(ADA)||NYC Meetup||June 25, 2019|
|iExec RLC(RLC)||Lyon Meetup||June 25, 2019|
|Ukraine Meetup||June 26, 2019|
|Loom Network(LOOM)||Manila Meetup||June 26, 2019|
|Bela(BELA)||IPhone App Release||June 25, 2019|
|Alibabacoin(ABBC)||Wallet Withdrawal Resume||June 25, 2019|
|Nexus(NXS)||Tritium Wallet||June 26, 2019|
|Maker(MKR)||NYC Meetup||June 26, 2019|
|Blockchain Summit London||June 26, 2019|
|Rate (per day)||128.85||2692.43|
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